Forecasting the Future of Palestinian Olive Production under Global Climate Change
Abstract
This study aims to forecast the future of Palestinian olive production under global climate change by analyzing climatic and production data for the period (2014–2024) and linking them to the specific environmental and political conditions of Palestine. The results revealed sharp fluctuations in production, reaching its peak in the 2019 season with (177,611 tons) of olives, while dropping to an unprecedented low of (30,276 tons) in the 2021 season, reflecting the direct impact of drought and rising temperatures. Correlation analysis showed that rainfall has a strong positive relationship with production (r = 0.87), whereas temperature has a strong negative relationship (r = -0.85). Regression analysis further indicated that about (77%) of the variation in production can be explained by climatic factors, as each increase of (1°C) in temperature leads to a decrease of approximately (9,834 tons) in production. Future projections up to 2050 suggest that production may decline to only (61,000 tons) under a severe climate scenario, threatening food security and the agricultural income of tens of thousands of families. The study concludes with a set of recommendations that integrate scientific agricultural solutions with the political dimension under the reality of Israeli occupation.
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